The Complete TarsierAlpha Trade Journal: Every Trade, Win and Loss, Explained

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This is the full record. Every trade the TarsierAlpha paper trading system has made, with full context — what the setup was, why we entered, what happened, and what we learned. Updated as new trades close.

All trades are paper trades using real options prices at realistic entry and exit levels.

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Trade #1: PYPL — Oversold Bounce ✅ WIN

Setup: PayPal (PYPL) was crushed in early 2026 alongside broad market selling. RSI reached 28 on the daily chart — extreme oversold for a company processing hundreds of billions in payments annually. The $42 support zone had been tested twice and was holding. IV was low. Entry Score: 67/100.

Trade:

• Entry: $42 call, March 6, 2026 expiry
• Premium paid: $0.95/contract × 3 contracts = $285 total
• Strategy: Oversold Bounce

Exit: 4 days after entry, PYPL moved to $47 area. Premium reached $2.96.

• Proceeds: $2.96 × 300 shares = $888
• Profit: +$603 (+212%)

Lesson: This is the Oversold Bounce working exactly as designed. The quality floor (major fintech company) held. The RSI extreme was the entry signal. The fast recovery — 4 days, not 4 months — rewarded patience and correct thesis timing.

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Trade #2: XYZ (Block Inc.) — Gap Fill ✅ WIN

Setup: Block Inc. (XYZ/SQ) had a significant unfilled price gap above the current price following an earnings-related drop. Gap Fill criteria met: RSI in recovery zone, MACD bullish crossover confirmed, volume above average. Entry Score: 70/100.

Trade:

• Entry: $54 call, March 13, 2026 expiry
• Premium paid: $2.64/contract × 3 contracts = $792 total
• Strategy: Gap Fill

Exit: 2 days after entry. Block gapped up significantly on broad market recovery and partial gap fill. Premium reached $11.18.

• Proceeds: $11.18 × 300 shares = $3,354
• Profit: +$2,562 (+323%)

Lesson: Gap fill moves can be explosive and fast. This 2-day, 323% return is the reason we prioritize Gap Fill setups. The setup required patience to find — but execution was fast and decisive. We exited all contracts rather than laddering because the target was reached so quickly.

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Trade #3: HOOD — Gap Fill ✅ WIN (separate from the loss below)

Setup: Robinhood Markets (HOOD) appeared in the Gap Fill scanner with a score of 73/100. Unfilled gap above current price, MACD crossover confirmed, volume above average.

Trade:

• Entry: $75 call, March 13, 2026 expiry
• Premium paid: $3.60/contract × 2 contracts = $720 total
• Strategy: Gap Fill

Exit: 4 days after entry. HOOD moved toward gap fill target. Premium reached $4.45.

• Proceeds: $4.45 × 200 shares = $890
• Profit: +$170 (+23.6%)

Lesson: Not every win is explosive. A 23.6% return in 4 days is a solid, disciplined result. The trailing stop system (premium peaked at +88% before dropping 34% from peak, triggering the exit) worked as designed — locked in real profit.

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Trade #4: HOOD — ❌ LOSS

Setup: A separate HOOD position was entered based on a momentum signal during a volatile period. The setup did not fully meet the conservative entry criteria — RSI was not yet at extreme levels, and the broader market was under pressure.

Trade:

• Entry: Premium paid for call position
• Strategy: Momentum/speculative entry

Exit: Position moved sharply against us. The stop loss level was hit.

• Result: -98% of premium (near total loss)

Lesson: This is the trade we show most prominently in our transparency record. It happened because: (1) the setup didn't fully meet our standard criteria, (2) the macro environment was working against the trade, and (3) the exit took slightly longer than the stop rules required.

The practical result: this trade accelerated the development of strict entry criteria in the TarsierAlpha scanner. A candidate must meet ALL criteria — not most of them — to qualify as a Top Candidate. The -98% HOOD loss is why the scanner has the filters it has.

One loss of this magnitude is tuition. It's paid for with early-stage paper trading capital, not subscriber capital.

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Trade #5: NFLX — Oversold Bounce ✅ WIN

Setup: Netflix hit extreme oversold RSI readings during a broad market correction. Revenue growth and subscriber metrics remained strong — the selling was macro-driven fear, not Netflix-specific deterioration. Classic quality company beaten down on fear, not fundamentals. Entry Score: High conviction.

Trade:

• Strategy: Oversold Bounce
• Options: Call position on the recovery

Exit:

• Result: +197%

Lesson: Netflix is the canonical Oversold Bounce stock. It has all the quality indicators — massive revenue, global subscriber base, content moat — and regularly gets oversold in broad market corrections. When RSI hits extreme levels on NFLX, the bounce has historically been fast and large. This trade validated the core strategy thesis.

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Trade #6: MSFT — Oversold Bounce ✅ WIN

Setup: Microsoft's daily chart showed a sharp single-day drop toward a major support level on above-average volume — a classic "panic sell" candle. RSI was approaching the oversold threshold. The bounce from support was fast.

Trade:

• Strategy: Oversold Bounce (intraday to overnight hold)

Exit:

• Result: +$1,122 profit in a single trading day

Lesson: This trade demonstrated the power of options leverage on a mega-cap quality name. Microsoft is not going out of business. When it drops sharply to support and options premiums are cheap relative to the expected bounce, the risk/reward is exceptional. The entire gain happened in one day — emphasizing the importance of having the position on before the move.

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Overall Record (10 Trades)

Metric	Value
Total Trades	10
Win Rate	50%
Notable Wins	PYPL +212%, XYZ +323%, NFLX +197%, MSFT +$1,122/day
Notable Losses	HOOD -98%
Peak Drawdown (Week 1)	-60%
Current Overall P&L	+25%

The trajectory: Week one was brutal (-60%). Week three showed full recovery (+25%). The methodology held through adversity. This is the real record — the one that builds trust.